![]() When he gets the acceptance letter, he immediately replies that he predicted it. A boy sends a poem into a popular poetry journal and says he thinks he has a good shot at getting published, even though deep down he doesn't believe it.One orders coffee and the other says, "you might feel tired now, but that's gonna keep you awake, I bet." It actually happens, and the second friend insists that he was sure it would. After a long night out, two friends stop at a diner. ![]() ![]() "I was sure it would happen," says the father. It turns out that his son forgot his fishing rod. When gearing up to go camping, a father says that he just knows someone is going to forget something.The girl's best friend says, although it took him longer than expected, she knew that he would call eventually. In spite of his not calling for three nights, he finally does on the fourth. A young lady waits for a telephone call from a gentleman she's given her number to several nights before.The long shot ends up winning, prompting the friend to claim he'd been certain of the outcome. One of them breaks from the other two and chooses a horse with very low winning odds, saying that he has a good feeling about that horse. Three friends decide to bet on a horse race.When the police scanner says that a driver who had just received her license skidded into a mailbox, the officer tells himself that he had been certain such a thing would happen on that night, of all nights. On a snowy night, a police officer predicts that it's the perfect condition for a teenaged driver to get into a fender-bender.When you take the exam, you feel unsure about the results however, when your grade comes back a B+, you exclaim to your friends, "I was sure that I'd aced that exam!" and actually believe it in hindsight. You are nervous to take an exam for which you waited to study until the very last minute.When it actually does rain, the individual tells himself that he was certain that it would when he saw the clouds rolling in earlier. He says to himself, I bet that it's going to rain this afternoon. An individual notices that outside, it's beginning to look a little bit gray.When he tells his mother she says, "I really had a feeling that you were going to get in" (even though she had expressed doubts to his father earlier that week). A letter comes in the mail informing an individual that he was accepted into a college.In fact, the Red Sox do end up winning the game, causing your friend to boast "I predicted it!" On the evening of an important World Series game, your friend predicts that the Red Sox are going to win by a large margin.Period.Here are some examples of the hindsight bias phenomenon. We could have been more precise in the language and I would have made my call for a bill that precisely mirrors the federal bill earlier.įrom the benefit of hindsight where I'm sitting now, of course it was not the right decision, it was the wrong decision. That's not the kind of issue you want bottled up in committee, so I'm glad it ultimately got to the floor for a vote and I was glad to encourage that, now, in hindsight, sure, I wish we all knew 45 days ago what we know today. In hindsight, I wish that had not become law, but it is the law, and the only chance we have is either to amend it or for the courts to say that it has an unconstitutional foundation. In hindsight, trying to work in the words ‘my humps my humps, my lovely lady lumps’ may have been a mistake. I'm not going to sit here with the benefit of hindsight and judge the very good people who made hard decisions who were running the agency in very extraordinary circumstances at the time. Examples of hindsight bias can be seen in the writings of historians describing outcomes of battles, physicians recalling clinical trials, and in judicial systems as individuals attribute responsibility on the basis of the supposed predictability of accidents.In some countries, 20/20 indicates normal visual acuity at 20 feet, from which derives the idiom "hindsight is 20/20". Hindsight bias may cause distortions of memories of what was known or believed before an event occurred, and is a significant source of overconfidence regarding an individual's ability to predict the outcomes of future events. People often believe that after an event has occurred, they would have predicted or perhaps even would have known with a high degree of certainty what the outcome of the event would have been before the event occurred. Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along phenomenon or creeping determinism, is the common tendency for people to perceive past events as having been more predictable than they actually were. Wikipedia Rate this definition: 0.0 / 0 votes
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |